Lower Thames Crossing: A lifeline for Kent or doomed to fail?

A government decision on whether to build the much discussed Lower Thames Crossing, linking Gravesend in Kent and Tilbury in Essex under the Thames, will not now be made until at least 23 May 2025.

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh has said the delay was to allow more time for the application to be considered further, including any decisions made as part of the spending review.

This is the third time the decision has been extended.

The news has been greeted with dismay across the transport industry.

Logistics UK Chief Executive David Wells OBE said: “The postponement of the decision on the Lower Thames Crossing’s Development Consent Order (DCO) is deeply concerning and runs counter to what the new government has said about getting Britain building again. 

“Industry is united in its opinion that the Lower Thames Crossing needs to be built so the decision to delay the DCO will be met with bitter disappointment and frustration by businesses up and down the country. The new crossing can pay for itself many times over, driving growth by generating billions for the UK economy and creating thousands of high-quality jobs, and should not be delayed further.

“While geographically in Kent and Essex, the proposed crossing is nationally significant and is vital for improving connections between the North, the Midlands and the Channel ports, where the Short Straits crossings between England and France handle over half of all goods traded between Great Britain and mainland Europe.

“The scheme has already been stuck in the planning stages for over a decade and this further delay will see businesses and consumers continuing to shoulder the financial burden that congestion at the Dartford Crossing costs the UK economy every year in lost productivity."

Plans emerged as early as 2009 for the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) – a major road project connecting Kent and Essex to relieve pressure on the existing Dartford Crossing.

The latest proposal would see a 14.3-mile route branch off the M2 south of the Thames and link up with the M25 and A13 to the north, at a projected cost of £9 billion.

Those backing the project say it’s set to provide a massive boost to the Kent economy, cutting delays at the Port of Dover and thus salvaging millions in lost productivity.

That is, if it ever gets the green light.

Costs for the planning application alone have already reached £300 million – but this latest delay puts the project in limbo until May 2025.

Other proponents of the LTC are as frustrated at Logistics UK.

“This isn’t just any road scheme,” said Nick Fenton, CEO of business support service Locate in Kent.

“It represents the biggest infrastructure project for a generation, and one that would play a major part in delivering the government’s housebuilding and growth agenda for the UK economy.

“Kent is key to UK trade, from transporting fruit to supermarkets to exporting goods to and from Europe.

“Businesses in Kent and across the UK will be bitterly disappointed by the decision to delay this vital project even further, especially given the overwhelming support for the scheme from across industry and the political spectrum.”

However, some experts have argued that these sweeping economic promises are vastly overstated.

A recent report from activist group Transport Action Network dismisses the LTC as “a dinosaur scheme” destined to return just 22p to the public purse for every pound spent.

The findings come from Dr Colin Black, a transport consultant who served as strategic lead to Thurrock Council in Essex during the six-month examination of the scheme’s development consent order (DCO).

He forecasts that the existing Dartford Crossing will return to its present level of congestion just five years after the opening of the new route, putting additional strain on local road networks.

And not only will the project intrude on Kent’s green belt, but it’s also expected to generate around 6.6 million tonnes of CO2 during construction and operation.

“We urge [transport secretary] Louise Haigh to heed Colin’s warnings, cancel the LTC and avoid a costly mistake for UK taxpayers,” said Chris Todd, founder and director of Transport Action Network.

“Investment should instead be focused on public transport and active travel schemes which genuinely support the government’s five missions.”

Whether mistake or not remains to be seen, but the burden may not end up on the taxpayer – at least not directly.

Labour has reportedly considered a new form of PFI-style private finance initiative to finally get the £9 billion project moving.

The government may still need to underwrite construction risks to attract investors, and it’s likely the new route would require potentially hefty tolls to start paying them back.

Nick Fenton hailed the prospect a “welcome development”.

“It’s encouraging that ministers are keeping an open mind and are considering all possible means to deliver a project that will be critical to keeping UK freight passing through the Channel Ports and supporting increased housing and future economic growth for the region.”

Other parties hoping for a positive resolution are Bluewater shopping centre owners Landsec, Asda, the British Chambers of Commerce and the Port of Dover.

Unfortunately, they’ll need to hold out hope another seven months.